منابع مشابه
Forecast Verification and the Uncertain Truth
Forecasting scores, such as the Brier score, are used to assess the quality of a forecaster. It was demonstrated previously that the Brier score can be successfully applied to establish the forecasting quality of a Bayesian network. Existing forecasting scores, including the Brier score, assume that the eventual outcome of a predicted event can be observed with certainty. In practice, however, ...
متن کاملDesign Methodology of a Controller to Forecast the Uncertain Cardiac Arrest Using Fuzzy Logic Approach
The main objective of design methodology of a controller for forecasting cardiac arrest using fuzzy logic approach is to provide the prediction of period of life time for the patients affected by sudden death due to cardiac arrest. In this paper, the controllable risk factors “blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetic, obesity” are taken as inputs for the fuzzy logic controller and “the period of l...
متن کاملDensity forecast revisions and forecast efficiency
We explain that revisions to successive density forecasts of the same outcome, as measured by the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, need not be unpredictable, unlike those to conditional mean forecasts, even when the forecaster uses information efficiently. However one can still test the efficiency of fixed-event conditional density forecasts, similarly to conditional mean forecasts, by t...
متن کاملDrug Forecast
INTRODUCTION Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is the most common non-neoplastic disorder of aging American men.1 The prevalence of BPH increases from 8% in men between 31 and 40 years of age to 50% in men between 51 and 60 years of age to more than 80% in men older than 80 years of age.2,3 Although the exact etiologic mechanism of BPH is unknown, hormonal changes involving the accumulation of...
متن کاملDrug Forecast
INTRODUCTION Insomnia is a condition that affects nearly everyone at some point in life. Up to 40% of American adults have intermittent insomnia, and 10% to 15% have a chronic sleep problem.1 The main presentation of insomnia is difficulty with either falling asleep or maintaining sleep throughout the night. Complaints of insomnia tend to increase with age. Elderly people report trouble falling...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union
سال: 1997
ISSN: 0096-3941
DOI: 10.1029/eo078i006p00062-03